The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 in Zambia - The August 2020 Update - Background Study for UNCTAD

30 June 2021

The analysis in this study attempted to show the macroeconomic and social effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP and sectoral GDP growth, including the external sector, on a small mineral dependent economy in Africa -Zambia. The analysis has shown that for small countries that are dependent on a single (or a few) primary commodities, the recovery of the global economy is very crucial for their recovery. It also addresses the policy response of both the government and the private sector, as well as the potential implications of a global demand-led recovery policy option, as proposed by the UN Global Policy Model (GPM) in its analysis in UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2020, for resource dependent economies such as Zambia. Finally, the paper discusses the scope for demand led recovery in Zambia and examines the socio-economic effect of the pandemic, including its gender dimension. The conclusion draws policy implications for a sustainable economic recovery in Zambia.